Saturday, February 06, 2021

Association Between County-Level Change in Economic Prosperity and Change in Cardiovascular Mortality Among Middle-aged US Adults

This is not a particuarly strong study methodologically but  I am putting it up as an all-too-rare study where the effect of poverty is examined  -- with the expected results

Sameed Ahmed M. Khatana et al.


Importance:  After a decline in cardiovascular mortality for nonelderly US adults, recent stagnation has occurred alongside rising income inequality. Whether this is associated with underlying economic trends is unclear.

Objective:  To assess the association between changes in economic prosperity and trends in cardiovascular mortality in middle-aged US adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants:  Retrospective analysis of the association between change in 7 markers of economic prosperity in 3123 US counties and county-level cardiovascular mortality among 40- to 64-year-old adults (102 660 852 individuals in 2010).

Exposures:  Mean rank for change in 7 markers of economic prosperity between 2 time periods (baseline: 2007-2011 and follow-up: 2012-2016). A higher mean rank indicates a greater relative increase or lower relative decrease in prosperity (range, 5 to 92; mean [SD], 50 [14]).

Main Outcomes and Measures:  Mean annual percentage change (APC) in age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality rates. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the additional APC associated with a change in prosperity.

Results:  Among 102 660 852 residents aged 40 to 64 years living in these counties in 2010 (51% women), 979 228 cardiovascular deaths occurred between 2010 and 2017. Age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality rates did not change significantly between 2010 and 2017 in counties in the lowest tertile for change in economic prosperity (mean [SD], 114.1 [47.9] to 116.1 [52.7] deaths per 100 000 individuals; APC, 0.2% [95% CI, −0.3% to 0.7%]). Mortality decreased significantly in the intermediate tertile (mean [SD], 104.7 [38.8] to 101.9 [41.5] deaths per 100 000 individuals; APC, −0.4% [95% CI, −0.8% to −0.1%]) and highest tertile for change in prosperity (100.0 [37.9] to 95.1 [39.1] deaths per 100 000 individuals; APC, −0.5% [95% CI, −0.9% to −0.1%]). After accounting for baseline prosperity and demographic and health care–related variables, a 10-point higher mean rank for change in economic prosperity was associated with 0.4% (95% CI, 0.2% to 0.6%) additional decrease in mortality per year.

Conclusions and Relevance:  In this retrospective study of US county-level mortality data from 2010 to 2017, a relative increase in county-level economic prosperity was significantly associated with a small relative decrease in cardiovascular mortality among middle-aged adults. Individual-level inferences are limited by the ecological nature of the study.

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